Good Reads

(UPDATED: NOV 2021)
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Brazil Soybean Transportation

In third quarter 2021, the rise in Brazil’s soybean transportation costs reflected a significant rise in ocean rates (fig. 1, tables 1, 1a, 2, 2a, and 9). From third quarter 2020 to third quarter 2021 (year to year), ocean rates doubled to Shanghai, China, and increased nearly 130 percent to Hamburg, Germany. This was the largest increase in ocean rates since second quarters 2007 and 2008 (fig. 1). The increase was due to strong demand for shipping bulk items, as well as tight vessel supply caused by congestion and other logistic inefficiencies (Grain Transportation Report (GTR), October 14). The cost of shipping a metric ton (mt) of soybeans 100 miles by truck decreased 6 percent—from $5.48 per mt to $5.16 per mt (table 8). (19 PAGES)

Oilseeds and Products Update

Post increased its forecast for soybean planted area to 40.5 million hectares for 2021/22, up from 39 million hectares in 2020/21. Brazil continues to expand its area because of high domestic soybean prices. Post forecasts a record harvest at 145 million metric tons (MMT), with planting starting earlier this year. For 2020/21, Post maintained the production estimate of 137 MMT. Soybean exports in 2021/22 are forecast at 92 MMT, up from 2020/21 exports estimated at 85.3 MMT. With ample supplies, Post revised imports downward, now forecast at 400,000 metric tons (MT) for 2021/22. For 2021/22, Post revised the soybean processing forecast up to 47.5 MMT based on available supply. The crush estimate for 2020/21 is unchanged at 46.5 MMT, constrained by high domestic oil prices.

PDF 19 OCT 21

Atlas of Brazilian Agribusiness a Sustainable Journey

Brazil is one of the leaders in the production and export of food, fiber and energy, with potential for expansion in the sector. All of this keeping most of its biomes intact and its commitments to international agreements for the environment preservation. With pioneering spirit and innovation in tropical technologies, there will be no lack of opportunities for an increasingly entrepreneurial Brazil, with critical and technological capacity to position itself as the greatest power in sustainable agricultural production in the world.
The Atlas of Brazilian Agribusiness: A Sustainable Journey is not intended to exhaust the debate on agriculture and the environment in Brazil. Its purpose is to present data and facts, highlighting how innovation and an integrated approach in the field has contributed to sustainability.

PDF: 17MB 30 SEPT 21

Grain and Feed Update

Post lowers its corn production forecast for market year (MY) 2020/21 (March 2021 – February 2022) to 94 million metric tons (MMT), a reduction of 11 MMT from Post’s April projection. The change is based on the deteriorating yield outlook for second-crop “safrinha” corn after widespread delayed planting and persistent dry conditions in the major production regions. Post raises its estimate of market year MY 2020/21 (April 2021 – March 2022) rice production (milled equivalent) to 7.9 MMT, which is 425,000 MT higher than Post’s last estimate. Post maintains its forecast for MY 2021/22 (October 2021 – September 2022) wheat area at 2.6 MHa, as record prices continue to incentivize expansion. Given a short delay in planting in Rio Grande do Sul due to dry conditions, Post lowers its projection for MY 2021/22 Brazilian wheat production by 200,000 MT, to 6.85 MMT, which would still set a new record for the crop.

PDF 28 JUNE 2021

KORY MELBY AG BRAZIL GOOD READS BR ECON OUTLOOK

Brazil’s Economic Outlook and Agenda
Central Bank

Roberto Campos Neto
Governor of Banco Central do Brasil
PDF 7 APRIL 2021

KORY MELBY BRAZIL AG CONSULTANT - USDA BR AG COMPETITIVENESS

Brazil’s Agricultural Competitiveness

Recent Growth and Future Impacts Under Currency Depreciation and Changing Macroeconomic Conditions

PDF- 24 SEPT 2020

Partnership On Agriculture and Food Security

Commodity Intelligence Report

Argentina has Record Area

PDF - 30 APR 2020

Brazilian Commodity Prices Hit Record Levels

Prices for major Brazilian row crops, including soybeans, corn, rice, and wheat, all hit record highs in nominal value in recent weeks. The main reason for the domestic price increase is a steep devaluation of the Brazilian real (BRL). While the BRL has been steadily weakening over the past few years, economic turmoil driven by the coronavirus pandemic has worsened the trend in 2020. As a result, despite the deteriorating economic outlook on the whole, Brazilian grain and oilseed producers are having arguably their most profitable season to date.

Overview of Brazilian Soybean Transportation in 2019

During 2019, Brazil exported 74.1 million metric tons (mmt) of soybeans, 11 percent less than 2018’s total of 83.3 mmt (figure 1)—a decline that also reduced transportation demand.

PDF - 27 MAR 2020

KORY MELBY AG BRAZIL: FAS REPORT Oil and Products Update

Oilseeds and Products Update

In 2019/20, Brazil is forecast to reap a record soybean cop of 124.5 million metric tons (mmt). Post raised slightly the forecast for planted area by 100 thousand hectares to 36.9 million ha. The increase is based on marginal gains across several states. Post raised the production forecast by one mmtbased on better than initially expected yields in Mato Grosso, and improved productivity expectations in Rio Grande do Sul and the Northeast. Soybean exports are forecast at 75 mmt for 2019/20, up from
2018/19 estimate of 74 mmt. Post maintains the crush forecast of 44 mmt for 2019/20, driven by the domestic demand for soy oil. Soy oil exports are forecast to level off dramatically as industry ramps up biodiesel blending rates to meet the government mandate.

PDF - POSTED 6 FEB 2020