| Kory Melby's Brazil Ag Consulting |
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UPDATED: 27 JULY 2021
Consulting International Clients about Brazil and Argentina Ag since January 2001
Kory Melby
Twenty years ago, when I first started my Brazil research and adventure, I was looking for someone like myself to help me understand the dynamics of the Brazil market place better. With much assistance from Brazilian and American friends, this site continues to evolve and grow.
My VIP Consulting Services and Ag Investment Tours are for those wanting to understand Brazil's Ag sectors while meeting specific business objectives of international professionals. I have led investment and agricultural groups from the USA, Canada, UK, Africa and China to see first hand Brazilian Agriculture (Argentina as well).
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Drop me a note if you have any questions.
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(references available upon request)
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** To learn more about Ag in Brazil, be sure to check out the "Good Reads" page.
TESTIMONIAL:
Thoroughly enjoying my Newsletter subscription. The diverse assortment of material that you send out from week to week is outstanding. Keep them coming!
Rich
Apr 2021
Thoroughly enjoying my Newsletter subscription. The diverse assortment of material that you send out from week to week is outstanding. Keep them coming!
Rich
Apr 2021
LATEST BRAZIL AG NEWS
Major Ag News and Updates Sent to Clients
JULY
NEWSLETTER:
AUGUST Part II
31 JUL 2021
Highlights include:
Rumo Opens New Terminal in Rio Verde, Goias
27 JUL 21
NEWSLETTER:
AUGUST Part I
17 JUL 2021
Highlights include:
Update on markets:
JUNE
AUDIO UPDATE
29 JUNE 2021
GOOD READS:
USDA: Foreign Agricultural Service
Grains and Feed - Brasilia
28 JUNE 2021
NEWSLETTER:
JULY PART Il
27 JUNE 2021
NEWSLETTER:
JULY PART I
20 JUNE 2021
RAILROAD: FICO - Mato Grosso to Goias
21 JUNE 2021
Authorization for Construction
RAILROAD INFRASTRUCTURE
14 JUNE 2021
Map showing the connecting of 3 railroads
NEWSLETTER:
JUNE PART II
5 JUNE 2021
NEW PAGE:
5 JUNE 2021
AUDIO UPDATE (1 & 2)
26 MAY 2021
NEWSLETTER:
JUNE PART I
15 MAY 2021
MAY
CROPS: CORN - Map
12 MAY 2021
AUDIO UPDATE
12 MAY 2021
AUDIO UPDATE
11 MAY 2021
AUDIO UPDATE
10 MAY 2021
NEWSLETTER:
MAY PART II
2 MAY 2021
This was written about the time of Hillary's missing emails, thus the political reference.
Also, IMEA started using remote sensing at this time and they had sharply higher planted area of 2nd crop corn compared to Conab at the time.
Conab later came UP TO IMEA numbers in later reports.
It is more so the % loss I am trying to relay and not the exact numbers and there were wide discrepancies back then.
Kory
July 2016
Well, wow
This year has been a painful lesson for all the young Jedi´s that thought predicting Brazil crop size was easy. Just a few months ago, we had Brazil respected consulting firms calling for 61 mmt of 2nd crop corn. Now it is 43 mmt. Here is a hint. You do not grow bumper soy and corn crops on 1200 mm or rain per year. Kinda takes 2400 mm + then you can get really optimistic on crop size. People forget that just a short 6 years ago, Mato Grosso was on deck to produce 10 mmt of corn. It stopped raining in April, and the crop was barely 6 mmt. I will never forget that. MT had 5 bumper crops in a row. It was time for a correction. But, MT coming in at 20 mmt last year and 15.6 mmt this year is reasonable to me. That is just farming. What continues to blow my mind is this missing 700,000 ha of corn !!!! from Conab to IMEA??? Who is right???? I am thinking IMEA is closer to right, but why can´t these agencies get their ducks in a row? In a year like this of shortage, they are creating their own disasters with DATA !!!!
From year to year, from IMEA to Conab we now have 10 million missing tons of corn !!!!!!!!!!! 360 million bushels missing ????!!!!! does Hillary have them? FBI? Venezuela????
NEWSLETTER:
AUGUST Part II
31 JUL 2021
Highlights include:
- Update on BR corn prices and dynamics
- Update on Nov 21 soybeans and bullish pennant
- 2022 soybean cashflows for Mato Grosso
- Graphics showing pace of soy sales, crop input purchases, and also public sentiment of status of Brazil affairs.
Rumo Opens New Terminal in Rio Verde, Goias
27 JUL 21
NEWSLETTER:
AUGUST Part I
17 JUL 2021
Highlights include:
- Update on 10 year production forecast for Brazil
- Sugar cane crop in decline from drought and frost
- Record amounts of fertilizer have been imported in 1st 6 months of 2021
- Deforestation stats and a few comments
- New slaughter house being planned in Parana 23,000 hogs per day
Update on markets:
- Spring wheat, Canola, and Oats, all should be higher in coming weeks.
- There are none.
JUNE
AUDIO UPDATE
29 JUNE 2021
- Western Parana Frost
GOOD READS:
USDA: Foreign Agricultural Service
Grains and Feed - Brasilia
28 JUNE 2021
NEWSLETTER:
JULY PART Il
27 JUNE 2021
- For those of you asking for 2022 BR cash flow data outside of Mato Grosso, this has some graphics for you.
NEWSLETTER:
JULY PART I
20 JUNE 2021
- A quick update on infrastructure and fertilizer prices. A few observations on my perspective on climate, global economy, and 2022 crop sizes for South America.
RAILROAD: FICO - Mato Grosso to Goias
21 JUNE 2021
Authorization for Construction
RAILROAD INFRASTRUCTURE
14 JUNE 2021
Map showing the connecting of 3 railroads
NEWSLETTER:
JUNE PART II
5 JUNE 2021
- I doubt Brazil matters much the next 2 to 8 weeks.
- It is all about USA weather and acres.
NEW PAGE:
5 JUNE 2021
AUDIO UPDATE (1 & 2)
26 MAY 2021
- 1 Audio from Western Parana. Frost damage.
- 1 Political scene on the ground and scenarios.
- 2 Interest rates on purchase of John Deere tractor.
NEWSLETTER:
JUNE PART I
15 MAY 2021
- Overview of the US dollar and BRL
- Technical update of SX 21
- Opening of Abuna bridge in Acre state: gateway to the Pacific
- Weekend pro-government rally in Brasilia
- Video comments on Stine seeds in Lucas do Rio Verde- English
MAY
CROPS: CORN - Map
12 MAY 2021
AUDIO UPDATE
12 MAY 2021
- Situational comments on corn harvest.
- Audio from Western Parana.
AUDIO UPDATE
11 MAY 2021
- Just got another audio in Portuguese.
He is thinking 2nd crop corn could be down to the "50s" MMT uhhhgggg
a limiting factor is that producers had good luck with summer varieties, planting them as a 2nd crop the past two years.
The market is using high yield potential varieties that do well with high rainfall and putting them in a 2nd crop high stress environment is not good.
This year's added stress shows up with yield losses.
Other limiting factors are soil structure and lack of organic material.
Also insects and lack of resistance with these varieties and lack tropical tolerance.
Also fertilization only broadcast on top. Roots do not have the nutrients to work with when short on water.
AUDIO UPDATE
10 MAY 2021
- Mato Grosso Corn Comments
NEWSLETTER:
MAY PART II
2 MAY 2021
- Breakdown of 2nd crop corn potential and comparison to 2016
- New Non GMO soy resistant to bugs and rust from Embrapa
- Land price trends in Brazil
This was written about the time of Hillary's missing emails, thus the political reference.
Also, IMEA started using remote sensing at this time and they had sharply higher planted area of 2nd crop corn compared to Conab at the time.
Conab later came UP TO IMEA numbers in later reports.
It is more so the % loss I am trying to relay and not the exact numbers and there were wide discrepancies back then.
Kory
July 2016
Well, wow
This year has been a painful lesson for all the young Jedi´s that thought predicting Brazil crop size was easy. Just a few months ago, we had Brazil respected consulting firms calling for 61 mmt of 2nd crop corn. Now it is 43 mmt. Here is a hint. You do not grow bumper soy and corn crops on 1200 mm or rain per year. Kinda takes 2400 mm + then you can get really optimistic on crop size. People forget that just a short 6 years ago, Mato Grosso was on deck to produce 10 mmt of corn. It stopped raining in April, and the crop was barely 6 mmt. I will never forget that. MT had 5 bumper crops in a row. It was time for a correction. But, MT coming in at 20 mmt last year and 15.6 mmt this year is reasonable to me. That is just farming. What continues to blow my mind is this missing 700,000 ha of corn !!!! from Conab to IMEA??? Who is right???? I am thinking IMEA is closer to right, but why can´t these agencies get their ducks in a row? In a year like this of shortage, they are creating their own disasters with DATA !!!!
From year to year, from IMEA to Conab we now have 10 million missing tons of corn !!!!!!!!!!! 360 million bushels missing ????!!!!! does Hillary have them? FBI? Venezuela????
SPECIAL EDITION
20 Years: Mato Grosso Then and Now
17 SEPT 2020
20 Years: Mato Grosso Then and Now
17 SEPT 2020
- 20 years - It seems like yesterday.
This came together quite fast this week. I sent an early draft to a few with Bras-Americanos experience to which they offered a few suggestions and a thumbs up.
Kory's Services
Private consulting services for Hedge funds, private investors and agricultural organizations needing boots-on-the-ground information and analysis.
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Covers Brazil's ag sectors offering analysis and relevant, timely information. Emailed monthly directly to your inbox.
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Organized and guided ag tours for professionals in the ag sector or ag tourist seeking hands-on experience to better understand ag in Brazil.
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