UPDATED:  2 JUNE 2023

Kory's Brazil Ag Consulting Service Keeping International Clients informed about Ag in Brazil and Argentina since January 2001

Kory Melby Brazil Ag ConsultantAbout Kory Melby

Twenty years ago, when I first started my Brazil research and adventure, I was looking for someone like myself to help me understand the dynamics of the Brazil market place better. With much assistance from Brazilian and American friends, this site continues to evolve and grow.
​(UPDATE: KORY'S 22 YEARS IN BRAZIL)

My VIP Consulting Services and Ag Investment Tours are for those wanting to understand Brazil's Ag sectors while meeting specific business objectives of international professionals. I have led investment and agricultural groups from the USA, Canada, UK, Africa and China to see first hand Brazilian Agriculture (Argentina as well). 
Contact me
​ if you have any questions. ​
(references available
​upon request)

**  To learn more about Ag in Brazil, go to  "Good Reads" 

Top 10 things I am monitoring in BR.
  • Slowing Brazil economy. 
  • Ag tech expansion – machinery and robotic planters. 
  • Ag equipment demand slowing. 
  • Biofuel blend, going from 10% to 15%.
  • Railroad implementation throughout Brazil.​
  • Expansion of corn ethanol in Brazil. 
  • BRL FX.
  • Possible grain export tax in the future. 
  • Changes in environmental policies. 
  • Ag tech in Ag credit. ​
Top 5 things less of a concern than 1 year ago.
  • Fertilizer
  • Inflation
  • Fuel prices ​​
  • Drought
  • Cost of production ​
TESTIMONIAL:
​​
Thoroughly enjoying my Newsletter subscription.  The diverse assortment of material that you send out from week to week is outstanding.  Keep them coming!

Rich
​Apr 2021
Newsletter, Mail Outs & ​Site Updates
I send out many anecdotal links, articles, and contemporary hot button items of interest on a daily basis to VIP clients.

  • Global fertilizer stats and seminars that influence the global dynamic and not just Brazil.

  • The Russia/Ukraine situation and how it affects China and global exports on a daily basis.
    ​
  • On a busy day, when markets are moving, I can send out up to 15 updates in a given day.

VIP clients love the information flow.
SITE UPDATES

​<< ​JUNE >>

2 JUNE 23
NEWSLETTER JUNE 2023 PART IV

Updated Nov bean chart
  • We are ending the week much better than we started.

    Have a good one,
    ​Kory    ​

​<< ​MAY >>

31 MAY 23
NEWSLETTER JUNE 2023 PART IlI

Beating a dead horse.
  • Needless to say, I am speechless.

  • Nov soybeans could be trying to retrace the .618 of the whole move, if so, there is another 23 cents risk in the market from this morning's low.

  • Look at buying Nov beans if we get down to 11.10 area or on any bottom reversal pattern. 

    Kory

    Crude oil??  weak 

​
27 MAY 23
NEWSLETTER (free copy) JUNE 2023 PART Il

Update on the "Grain Railroad"
  • A decision is expected next week on the injunction.
    ​ 
  • A personal perspective of the evolution of railroads in Mato Grosso over the past 13 years. 

    Kory


26 MAY 23
NEWSLETTER JUNE 2023 PART I

Updated SX23 graphics
A few comments on 2024 profitability
------------------------------------------------
  • We need Nov soy to close on top of 11.85 1/2 today. 
    (near the high of day too) 12.00 would be better.

  • Monday night's forecast for central USA will be critical.

  • Almost feels like a 4th of July weekend given how far we have sold off.
    ​
  • From agronomist perspective, a dry spell now is good for crop so long as it germinates. Deep early season roots are great for 300 bu corn later so long as it rains before tassel.

  • The roots will be so deep that it will take a D-8 cat to tip the plant over.

  • However, if dry spell lasts 3-4 weeks in June, Houston we have a problem and 300 bu corn can drop to 180 quite quickly.

    ​Kory


26 MAY 23
NORTE-SUL RAILROAD CONNECTED AFTER 36 YEARS.

​
19 MAY 23
NEWSLETTER MAY 2023 PART IV
​
This is meant to complement May part II and III.

  • Much has happened the past two weeks and it has been difficult to keep up with market dynamics in both hemispheres.
    ​
  • I have tried to zoom out and look at the bigger picture.

    ​Thank You All,
    Kory


13 MAY 23
NEWSLETTER MAY 2023 PART III

Are we in a Bull or Bear market?
 
  • I had not planned to write a newsletter this weekend.  But, after a 56 cent sell off of November soybeans this week, I figured I had better update on the situation.

  • ​So much of the WASDE crop projection for 23/24 relies on a goldilocks' scenario for North and South America; Northern and Southern hemisphere - for that matter.

    comments attached
    Kory
    ​

13 MAY 23
UPDATED: Ag Fertilizer Brazil - New factory Sinop, MT 

​
6 MAY 23
NEWSLETTER MAY 2023 PART II
This is how I see the next 12 months unfolding.

Two out of Three ain't bad.

  • Future newsletters will be back to Brazil and ARG situation and fundamentals. 

  • Next Week:
    CONAB Thursday
    WASDE Friday
    Updated ARG production numbers likely next week (max 2 weeks) (should be lower).

  • Friday's commitment of traders gave us the fuel.  Now all we need is a spark. 

  • These reports will either give merit to this report or kill it.
     
  • The Ribeirao Preto Ag show had fantastic numbers.
    (Keep in mind, many of these numbers are pre-orders and not final) But, given the negative "vibe" back in early January that Lula would kill Ag, so far, that has not been happening. 

  • The only major "trend" change geo-politically has been the Brazil's turn towards more "Bric's", less USA influence and a de-dollarization mind-set, but given the way USA behaves, can you blame them?

  • This will be a "FAD" until someone gets burnt on FX monopoly money conversion on a boat load and they will run back to dollars again. 

    Feedback welcome
    ​Kory

​<< ​APRIL >>

27 APR 23
GOOD READS:  Oilseed Sector in Brazil
​

19 APR 23
NEWSLETTER MAY 2023 PART I
​
  • This Bud's for you.
    A little for everyone in this newsletter.

  • 2022: Bzl soybeans FOB Paranagua traded above 200cts/bu over Chicago futures.

  • 2023: Bzl soybeans offered at 190cts/bu under Chicago futures.

    Feedback welcome.
    Kory


18 APR 23
1 APR 23
NEWSLETTER APR 2023 PART IIl  
 
  • "Back where you belong"

  • Soybean market review with general comments on BR and ARG going forward.​
    Feedback welcome.
    ​Kory

Kory's Services

​VIP CONSULTING
Private consulting services for Hedge funds, private investors and agricultural organizations needing boots-on-the-ground information and analysis.
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​NEWSLETTER​
Covers Brazil's ag sectors offering analysis and relevant, timely information. Emailed monthly directly to your inbox.
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AG INVESTMENT TOURS
Organized and guided ag tours for professionals in the ag sector or ag tourist seeking hands-on experience to better understand ag in Brazil.
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