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Ag Sector |
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Soybeans
and Corn
Brazil |
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The average yield in the 2010/11 crop was 3,115 kilograms per
hectare (46.24 bu/ac) - source CONAB |
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1/3 (4
million tons) of all exported soybeans from the
Port of
Paranaguá,
still in the form of grain - source Safra Cheia |
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comments on planted area and prices
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23 Nov 11
From
Previous
Newsletter:
Sent out to subscribers on Oct 31.
Soybeans have fallen
dramatically recently with European worries.
With the dollar rallying: Brazil is aggressively selling 2012 beans.
Currently the dollar is at 1:87:1
I think we are at the lower end of the trading range for now.
China will step in with purchases now.
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5 Dec |
 Brazil exported 4.5% more
soybean meal from January to November compared to the same period
last year
Brazil exported 1.2
million tons of soybean meal in November, according to the Ministry
of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC). Revenues reached
US$ 445.9 million.
The volume was 13.1% lower than that shipped in October, but
increased 13.6% compared to November last year. Revenue in turn
decreased 18.2% compared to October, but was 6.7% higher than that
recorded in November 2010.
From January to November this year, the country exported 13.35
million tons of soybean meal, 4.5% more than the same period in
2010.
The average price per ton of exported product in the last month was
US$ 371.00, compared to US$ 395.00 in October.
In the domestic market, according to a survey of Scot Consulting, a
ton of food is listed, on average, R$ 667.00 in São Paulo.
source:
SCOT CONSULTING via
RuralBR
chart:
Brasil Agro |
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Interesting week:
Operation Twist - twisted the soybean market very well.
23 Sept 11
 This past week the dollar rallied from 1:65 to a high of 1.95:1 on
Thursday morning. EURO worries combined with operation twist
created a down draft of selling pressure in soybean market.
For the Brazilian farmer, Monday through Thursday was like living in
an alternate reality. Each morning I would receive emails from
Brazilian producers asking me what is going on in Chicago? "We don't
understand? We have standing orders at our COOPS to scale up sell
our 2012 production. We see CBOT go down each night; then each
morning the COOP manager calls us and tells us that our orders are
filled????"
Soybeans drop US$ 1.50 per bushel and producers in Parana started
selling soybeans on Monday at R$ 48 per sac and by Thursday morning
offers at R$ 50/sac were being filled.
(US$ 11.80 per bushel to US$ 12.25 per bushel locally) "Depending on
the dollar exchange” Generally speaking the dollar has rallied 20%
and soybeans have dropped 12% in the same time frame. This trend
reversed Friday with continued sell off on CBOT and a sell off in
the dollar too. The bulk of the 2012 Brazil soybean crop has been
sold now.
This was the best of all worlds. Never has a Brazilian producer been
able to sell his future crop at record prices in his own currency at
the beginning of planting. He bought his seed, chemical
and fertilizer months ago at reasonable prices and cheap dollar. Now
he sells his production while CBOT was at the highs of the year and
currency exchange working in his favor.
This must be a dream?
Only thing left to do is grow 70 sac
per hectare soybeans and book a trip to Disney World for 2012.
Thank you PIIGS, EURO, OPERATION TWIST, and anyone else that would
like to take credit.
Personal Note:
Notice in the above posting that I did not mention anything
about the shrinking size of USA corn and soybean crop, nor did I
mention that China was in or out of the market.
The above market events took place "Outside" the normal
Supply/Demand "Fishtank" that many of us obsess about on a daily
basis. Global currency spreads unwinding trumped half a bushel
per acre plus or minus crop size estimates.
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22 Oct |
 Corn and soybean acreage
steal From beans
The producers of beans in Brazil will reduce up to 20% of its
planted areas in the 2011/2012 season, which began in August. The
main reason being the low price of edible beans compared to corn and
soybeans.
Some farmers in the
States of Parana and Minas Gerais are already talking of planting
50% less and replacing the their bean corps with corn or soybeans.
source: DCI via Notícias Agrícolas |
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18 Oct |
 Planted area
increases in BR due to high quotes
The
corn planted area for the summer crop in Brazil might move up in
2011/12. Favorable prices and promising profitability have driven
this increase in area. However, in early October, oscillations in
the international market started to affect quotes, which has
resulted in price drops.
The ESALQ/BM&F Bovespa Index for corn (Campinas-SP region; cash
price, using the CDI discount tax), from Sept. 30 to Oct. 14 dropped
3.06%, closing at 30.78 reais or US$17.77 per 60-kilo bag.
Considering the NPR discount tax, prices (Campinas-SP region; cash
price) closed at 30.21 reais or US$17.44 dollars per 60-kilo bag, a
decrease of 3.14% in the same period.
Conab (National Company for Food Supply) indicated that the area in
this summer crop might reach between 8.25 and 8.5 million hectares,
which may represent an increase of 4.2% to 7.2% compared to the
previous summer season.
For the time being, the average yield is estimated at 4,391 kilos
per hectare, 3.3% lower than in the 2010/11 season (4,538 kilos per
hectare). The production is forecast to reach between 35.98 and
37.48 million tons, upping 0.2% to 4.3% in relation to the previous
(35.93 million tons).
In early October, producers were encouraged again to step up
planting activities of the summer crop due to rains in many
Brazilian states. In Mato Grosso, rains have favored the soybean
planting, therefore, its harvesting might occur at an ideal time for
the planting of the second corn crop, in early 2012.
In Paraná state, according to Seab/Deral (Secretariat of
Agricultural Products Supply of Paraná state), planting activities
of corn had already reach 70% of the forecast area until Oct. 10. In
Rio Grande do Sul state, 55% of the area has already been cropped,
according to Emater (Institution for the Agricultural Development of
the Government of the Rio Grande do Sul state).
Trades were even slower due to the holiday (Oct. 12, a religious day
in Brazil). Because of the valuation of Real against the dollar,
prices in the domestic market have kept the downward trend, while in
the international market, quotes bounced back.
Brazil’s exports of corn amounted 1.65 million tons in September,
8.2% more than in August, but 14.6% less than September 2010.
source:
Cepea – Brazil |
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27 Sept |
Harvest begins with
optimism: climate and prices are favorable
According
to researchers from Cepea, the weather conditions remain positive,
mainly in southern Brazil. Besides adequate temperatures, soil
moisture is favorable for new crop cultivation and planted crops
from the previous weeks. Meanwhile, demand and the strong
devaluation of the Real against the U.S. dollar raised prices.
Between 19 and 26 September, the indicator ESALQ /
BM&F Bovespa (Campinas, SP region) rose 0.72%, closing at R$
32.36 / bag of 60 kg on Monday.
source:
Cepea |
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26 Sept |
Soybeans Take a
Back Seat to Corn
By ANDREW JOHNSON JR. - WSJ
 Reduced
production of soybeans in the U.S. and expectations that South
America's crop won't make up for the shortfall could push
inventories to historic lows by next summer, boosting prices.
U.S. soybean prices have been mostly stagnant this year, masking a
decline in U.S. production. Farmers increasingly favor planting
more-lucrative crops such as corn, which yields a larger crop per
acre, making the grain more profitable at current prices.
Some South American farmers also are shifting to higher-priced
crops. Paulo Shimohira, a Brazilian farmer in the northern state of
Bahia and the central state of Goiás, said he is planning to
increase corn production by roughly 3,700 acres, while scaling back
the number of acres he sows with soybeans when he plants his crop in
the coming months.
"Corn looks like it's going to be a good business," he said.
Little growth in the South American soybean crop would come on top
of an expected 7.3% drop in U.S. soybean production. Above, soybeans
are stored at a deposit in Montevideo, Uruguay.
.Crop prices have held up better than other commodities in the face
of concerns over slowing economic growth. Yet corn, wheat and cotton
prices have faced some sharp swings, while soybeans have traded
mostly between $13 to $14 a bushel this year.
U.S. soybean futures dipped below that range amid a broad global
selloff last week, settling Friday at $12.58 a bushel, the lowest
level of the year.
China particularly relies on the western hemisphere for oilseeds to
feed livestock and produce cooking oil as diets change among its
emerging middle class. Yet this past spring, U.S. farmers started to
set the stage for tightening supplies by cutting back on the number
of acres they sowed with soybeans to take advantage of strong corn
prices.
Growers in Brazil and Argentina could follow suit in the coming
months as they plant, pulling back from their recent role of making
up for shortfalls in the U.S. harvest. Further clouding the outlook
for crops in Brazil and Argentina is the potential for a La Nina
weather pattern, which could bring dry weather and cut crop yields.
Agricultural consultancy Celeres forecasts Brazil's corn crop will
jump by nearly 9% from a year ago to 58.39 million metric tons. The
soy crop is expected to merely rise 0.4% to a record 75.18 million
metric tons. Argentina is expected to plant about the same amount of
soybeans as a year ago, while corn plantings are seen rising 9% to
10%, said Ricardo Baccarin, vice president of Panagricola, a
brokerage.
Little growth in the South American soybean crop would come on top
of an expected 7.3% drop in U.S. soybean production. Federal
forecasters are projecting end-of-season supplies in the U.S. next
summer at 165 million bushels. That's 27% below end-of-season
supplies for the crop year that just ended and provides a cushion
equal only to roughly 20 days of demand.
.Goldman Sachs in a recent report predicted soybean prices will
rally over the next 12 months as production struggles to keep pace
with demand. The bank cited competition for land from other crops
and the potential for poor weather in South America as the main
threats.
"Soybean prices need to either outperform corn prices in coming
months to secure sufficient acreage or will need to rally sharply
next summer to achieve demand destruction in the face of lower
supplies," Goldman Sachs analysts wrote.
—Paul Kiernan, Shane Romig and Leslie Josephs contributed to this
article.
Write to Andrew Johnson Jr. at andrew.johnson@wsj.com |
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08 Sept
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How to increase the productivity of maize
The corn
yield in the regular crop in
Brazil is still very low. This
season (2010/11) the national
average was 4,571 kg/ha, ranging
from 2.102kg/ha in Northeast Brazil to
7.537kg/ha in the Central-West.
 These
numbers do not reflect the high potential cereal
production. In a survey conducted by researchers at
Embrapa Maize and Sorghum (Sete Lagoas / MG) in the
2007/08 harvest, it was found that in 1095 crops in
several regions of the country the average yield was
11,034 kg / ha, varying from 8,000 to 16,000 kg / ha.
It appears that income differences are still
very large in terms of adopted technologies and
managerial capacity of producers. This situation
indicates the possibility to increase productivity in
nearly all regions based on successful cases.
While there is a wide diversity with regard
to cereal production systems in Brazil, it is possible
to identify points that can be improved. They are: use
of planting density and appropriate spacing, correct
planting times, use of productive and cultivars
adapted to the region and production system, proper
fertilizing as per prior analysis, appropriate
control diseases, weeds and insects.
"The first concern that the producer must
have is with the seed he will plant. There are about
500 different types of maize seed, but the producer
must choose the one most suited to his situation,
taking into account his degree of capitalization and
management capacity." said Jose Carlos Cruz's.
Competitiveness depends on culture better use
of knowledge already available and validated and that,
in most cases, requires little financial investment,
but requires further monitoring and management
capability of farmers.
source: EMBRAPA MILHO E SORGO
via
Portal do Agronegocios
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More about the soybean
and corn sectors in Brazil
on Kory's,
Updates and Comments page.
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