|
11 Feb 2009
"Global oilseed production for
2008/09 is projected at 408 million tons, down 8.3 million tons from
last month. Lower soybean and sunflower seed production more than
offsets increases for rapeseed and peanuts. Global soybean
production is reduced 9.1 million tons to 224.1 million tons. The
reduction is due to South American crops which have been affected by
hot, dry weather during critical parts of the growing season.
Soybean production for Argentina is projected at 43.8 million tons,
down 5.7 million from last month as drought conditions and heat in
the central growing area has resulted in lower projected harvested
area and yields. Soybean production for Brazil is projected at 57
million tons, down 2 million due to dry conditions especially in the
southern producing areas. Paraguay soybean production is reduced to
4 million tons, down 1.6 million, also due to hot, dry weather.
Global sunflower seed production is projected lower due to
reductions for Argentina and EU-27. Global rapeseed production is
raised this month due to larger projected crops for India and
Ukraine. Other changes include higher peanut production for India,
and higher sunflower seed production for Ukraine. Global oilseed
stocks are projected at 61.6 million tons, down 3.8 million tons.
Most of the decline is due to lower soybean stocks in the U.S.,
Brazil, and Argentina."
The above text was taken from the crop report highlight section on
AGWEB. I am not surprised by USDA report. They are reducing SA crop
production estimates in a methodical stair step fashion. In the next
2-3 months their targets will be 55 mmt for Brazil and 40 mmt for
Argentina.
In my Feb newsletter outlined my thinking for Brazil soybean crop
size.
I suggest everyone look at a map of South America. Paraguay is
located in the middle of the Nov and DEC drought zone. Argentina is
located to the south with severe conditions. Rio Grande Sul, Santa
Catarina, Paraná, and Mato Grosso do Sul are all neighbors of
Paraguay. Same types of climate, soil, crop rotations.
Last week Conab in Brazil actually showed an increase in production
for the two southern states in Brazil, Rio Grande and Santa Cat.
This I found to be very odd? Reduction estimates in all neighboring
states but a 0 to 10% increase there?
Today we have USDA comments above. Paraguay produces between 5.5 to
6.5 MILLION tons of soybeans. This depends on who you listen too.
Keep in mind everything that comes out of Paraguay is a lie. TWO
weeks ago the government of Paraguay said that production would be
3.8 million tons down from 6.8 million last year. A 44% drop. Today
USDA dropped Paraguay
production from 5.6 MILLION ton in January to 4 million tons. This
is a 28% drop in one month?
My point is:
Argentina did not drop
28%
Rio Grande do SUL did not drop 28%
Santa Catarina did not drop 28%
Parana dropped about 10%
As per the previous newsletter where I stated that 40% of Brazil's
soybean production is in the southern 4 states. The USDA today
dropped Brazil national production by 2 million tons or 3.4%. I have
to ask myself if there are further cuts ahead? YES
If we take the southern 4 states "EXPECTED" production of 24.5
million tons and reduce it by the Paraguay factor of 28% that would
be 6.9 million tons.
59 million tons - 6.9 mmt = 52.1 MMT
Is Kory saying the crop size is 52 MMT for Brazil?
NO
It is larger than that.
Is this a case where MY crop is better than the neighbors crop? Sure
looks that way if you read the USDA report on the surface.
I am simply pointing out the distortions within today's report. I
can make a logical case for further reductions with the hints within
this report.
Recent rains did help band aid further losses.
I continue to hear of reports of soybean yields in Paraná coming in
less than expected. 20-25 bushel per acre. Normal would be 50 bushel
per acre or more. 1 bean per pod. Normal is 3 or 4 beans per pod.
Typical drought scenario.
Much of Buenos Aires province in ARG is a complete disaster. Santa
FE and Cordoba did have some good rains.
|
