Soybean field in the State of Mato Grosso, Brazil

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UPCOMING AG TOURS:


- Jan 16th-21 - Mato Grosso - full
- other dates available


Where Are the Soybeans?
29 Jul 10

 

Where are the soybeans?   Brazil 2010

 

Cash soybean bids remain firm in the interior of Brazil.


Soybean crushers do not have enough soybeans to make it until November.

Soybean crushers are bidding a negative margin to secure cash soybeans.

Subscribers have received a flash update with full details.


Record soybean planted area in Brazil for 2011
20 Jul 10

 

Soybean outlook for 2011 in BrazilAg Rural has made their first 2011 soybean crop prediction for 2011.

They are calling for 24 million hectares(59 million acres) to be planted to soybeans. This is + 700,000 ha from the 2010 season.

They are predicting another 350,000 ha of corn will be switched to soybeans above and beyond last years switch of 1 million hectares. This is the trend because of the low price of corn in relation to soybeans. This will happen primarily in the southern states.

They are also predicting about 350,000 ha of expansion to occur in the Northern/Western states.

If decent weather were to occur with planted area of this size, a 70 million ton + soybean crop would be possible. With La Nina kicking in, we need to be monitoring possible dry pockets forming in some areas. I think it will be very difficult to maintain the very high national yields that were common in 2010.

They made no mention of the possible 300,000 hectare increase in cotton area for 2011. Some, not all, of those acres will come from soybean area.

Sugarcane area continues to expand and more often than not tends to eat away at old soybean baseline acres too.

At this time we can see the making of another huge soybean crop on the horizon. Will it be above 70 MMT? I do not think so. Could the crop be at par with 2010 crop?  Yes.

The August newsletter has been sent out. It has details about planting mix for 2011.


Corn Price mato Grosso, Brazil
19 Jul 10

 

Here is a chart of cash corn prices in Mato Grosso.

 

Even with recent 80 cent/bu rally in Chicago, the price of corn in Mato Grosso did not budge.


Depending on location, cash corn ranges from US$ 2.00 per bushel to US$ 2.85.


No shortage of corn in Brazil.

July 2010 - corn prices in Mato Grosso Brazil


Corn & Soybean Update
16 Jul 10

 

I chatted with commodity broker from Sorriso, MT

Cash corn is US$ 2.05 per bushel.

Europe wants to buy Brazil corn now. Cheaper than USA. The problem is getting the cheap corn to port. The government has a freight auction system that subsidizes that.

Spot soybeans are US$ 8.50 per bushel

January bids for early 2011 crop are US$ 7.25 per bushel

February delivery is at US$ 6.60 per bushel

Freight from elevator to port is about US$ 100 per metric ton.

We need to add US$ 2.70 per bushel to get the port price.

 

* all quotes are central Mato Grosso (1200 mi / 1,920 km to port)

Map distance soybean region of Mato Grosso to Paranaguá, PR port


 

 Testimonials

"Congratulations on your November letter. It was really good and informative. I think we are probably looking at a continued sideways market in soybeans, at least for now."
 

 

Jay Edwards

"Thanks for the great trip! Learned a ton – only wish it had been longer."

 

 

Larry DeMaria
Sterne Agee NYC

"You did a good job on estimating crop sizes this year both in Argentina and Brazil.  And also about flat price expectations."

 

 

Regards,  Tom Rinaudo

 


Contact:

Kory Melby

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