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You did a good job on estimating crop sizes this year
both in Argentina and Brazil. And
also about flat price expectations.
Regards,
Tom Rinaudo
You are again being proven correct on you soybean
numbers. Congratulations on having the nerve to go against CONAB,
USDA and other prediction giants . . . 4 months ago! That is a long
time to wave a contrary banner! Good job.
Jay
Edwards
Ag Blog News
1 July Wednesday
Cotton Harvest Western Bahia
2nd largest cotton
producer
Producers not
optimistic.
Inputs too high.
Too much rain. But low cotton prices primary concern.
Looking ahead to
next crop. Reduced investments & area planted -30%.
Production cost
R$4,000 p/ha. Selling price doesn't cover cost.
27 June Saturday
July In Mato Grosso
I will be on tour
with
Sterne Agee starting July 8th. I will be showing them the
growth of Ag industry in Mato Grosso. We will be researching Ag
stocks and how to benefit from the rebound in the Ag sectors.
I am watching fertilizer sales and deliveries. I am a bit concerned
as to the lag I am seeing compared to the previous two years. If overall
fertilizer sales don't rebound quickly, I may have revise my Brazil
crop production estimates lower for 2010.
The July newsletter features this topic.
24 June Thursday
The State of Maranhão
In southern Maranhão, soybean producers are discouraged with the
outcome of this year's harvest. The lack of credit and the rain
reduced
production. Maranhão farmers harvested 993,000 MT of soybeans. A
drop of 21.3% compared to last year. The global
financial crisis has restricted credit for farmers exactly at the
time of planting and the area sown was 8% less at 420,000
hectares. The excess of rainfall exacerbated the situation further
causing a decrease of 14% in productivity.
I will release the July newsletter
the week of June 22.
It will feature comments on Brazil fertilizer sales to farmers and
new Mato Grosso processing facilities opened by Bunge and Cargill.
The next 90 days of fertilizer sales will determine Brazils'
potential to surge soybean production for 2010.
10 June Wednesday
ALL Railroad Get BNDES Loan
RIO DE JANEIRO (DowJones)--Brazil's Development Bank, BNDES, approved a 2.15
billion Brazilian real $1.11 billion) credit line for South America's largest independent logistics company, America Latina
Logistica (ALLL11.BR), or ALL, the bank said in a statement Tuesday.
The funding will support ALL's railroad investment plan for the period 2009 to
2012.
Production of harvesters
In Brazil dropped 80% in May
The
production of harvesters registered a decline of 80.8% in Brazil in
May, in comparison to the same period last year. "Producers
are reducing purchases in the midst of difficulties in financing",
says the National Association of Manufacturers Motor Vehicles (Anfavea).
According to the organization, only 60 harvesters were produced in
Brazil in May, that number was 69.7% registered in April.
The combine is one of the most expensive items in the set of
equipment traditionally used by the farmer, with one unit can
exceeding 1 million Reais (US$512,820 @ US$1.95 to Real).
Anfavea reported
that sales of agricultural machinery totaled 4,017 units in May,
slightly higher by 2.2% over April, but a fall of 13.8% compared to
May last year.
January-May,
the industry sold 18,815 units, a decrease of 7.3% over the same
period of 2008.
Total
production of machinery was 4,457 units in May, a reduction of 14.5%
over April and 31.2% compared to May last year.
From January
to May, 24,352 units were produced machines, a decrease of 25.2%
compared to 2008. Exports reached 1,247 units, an increase of 61.5
percent over April, but fall to 53.8% compared to May compared to
last year.
From January
to May, 6,091 units were exported, a decrease of 50.6 percent before
the same period of 2008.
Source: ANFAVEA - São
Paulo June 05,2009
4 June Thursday
Fertilizer Trade Chart -
June
Number of sacs of soybeans to trade for 1 ton of fertilizer -
cash price now.
or
red squares
to deliver soybeans in march 2010 for a ton
of fertilizer in October this year.
Advance price
Keep in mind that last year at this time grain companies were
not taking
future soybean trades..... credit crunch, volatility, margin calls
etc, etc.
They did not want the exposure last year at this time.
21 May Thursday
LRV Update
I spoke to friends in Lucas do Rio Verde today. The 2nd crop corn
was planted later this year. The region has had the most
rainfall ever for the month of May. This is perfect for the 2nd
crop. They are about to start chopping corn for silage. He did
make the comment that the rains need to stop now; otherwise the
cotton crop will be at risk of Boll rot.
18 May - Monday
State of Maranhão
The images go to verify my
earlier comments on Brazil's crop size.
State produces 1 MMT
I think we can assume a high
% of that crop is at risk
Junin, Argentina two John Deere combines harvesting
beans.
Junin is a couple of hours from
Buenos Aires.
Beans look pretty 'light' to me.
In Spanish.
18 May 09
Bahia - Beans and Cotton
A contact in
LEM, Bahia has told me today that he estimates
that 15% of soybean crop has been lost due to wetness and
spoilage (moldy beans).
He also estimates that 30% of the cotton crop is gone.
Too much rain for the cotton BOLLS.
Either rotten or deteriorating quality in the early BOLLS.
Stay tuned for updates.
15 May 09
Too Much Rain in Western
Bahia
35% of soybeans spoiled in field.
Rain 220 MM or 9 about inches for May - double normal.
In LEM up to 6000 trucks are waiting to dump wet soybeans.
Crop in Bahia expected to be down 8% compared to last year.
Some drivers have spent 1 week in line.
14 May 09
Bahia
NE Brazil has been very wet the past few
weeks.
Western Bahia planted late this year. I am hearing reports of
moldy soybeans and BOLL rot in the cotton. Media coverage has
been light. I hope to get a video of this on the blog sometime.
With the excess rains this can only hinder Brazil's overall
production.
Crazy year - Drought to the south and floods in the north
6 May 09
Special Mail Out
I will soon be sending out a special mid-May update for subscribers.
It will feature the cost of production for 2010 for Brazilian
soybean farmers.
Chemical companies have now joined the mix for supplying
credit to farmers.
Readers' Comments:
First
let me assure you that I think your newsletter
and information is totally too cheap! I
garner more information that has more value from
you, and for that I am very appreciative.
Scott R. Illinois
Thank
you for your newsletter on sugar and the current state of
the farm crisis in Brazil.
Shaun B.
Minnesota
Kory. I
really enjoyed your news letter. The economics of
sugar production was interesting, as well as the
breakdown of soybean yields per state. Very
educational to see the production differences
throughout Brasil!! Other people only give one
production number for the entire country. Looking
forward to your next newsletter already!!! Have you
considered publishing more often? I wish you would
consider doing a weekly newsletter!! I would be the
first to sign up!!
Kelly D Iowa.
Please e-mail me
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