"I am a very
pleased subscriber. I note WXrisk is forecasting a heat dome moving
into the crop areas in January; (am familiar with soybeans & 'can
kill the crop several times a year & still produce') I AM curious,
since I am told 76% of the Brazil crop is already sold, "What is the
export policy for producers unable to deliver sacks for export?"
Linda J
"You did a good job on estimating crop sizes this year both in Arg and Br. And also about flat price expectations."
On Investment Tour:
States of Paraná and São Paulo
26 Jan
I am headed to Foz do Iguaçu
Saturday morning.
I will meet clients from NYC for a western Paraná crop tour.
The second half of the tour will be sugar related in São Paulo state
and City.
We will be covering a wide range of interests on this tour.
Soybeans, corn, sugar, beef, pork, and Ag Farming companies.
I will update as I can on the fly.
Next hedge fund tour starts April 17th.
Mato Grosso focus.
NOTE:
Interesting to note that
grain markets are bucking the negative influences of rain forecasts
and USDA reports. The story has become
bigger than just weather forecasts of late. We are reaching a
tipping point in global soy supply/demand balance sheets. This
should keep things interesting for another 12 months.
The map is comparing Jan
15 2011 to that of Jan 16 2012
It shows the deterioration in vegetative growth for the prime area
of Argentina.
Big hit to corn yields.
Farms in some areas made corn for silage and planted second soybean
after rain. This will have Atrazine carryover risk and early frosts
risk but they take the risk. We believe however that USDA is still
behind the losses. Due to the loss in 2nd soybean only we are near
the 45mm tons and if it does not rain this week we estimate being
below that. Still difficult to know how many of this new hectares of
corn turned to soybean will add up.
Video produced by
Palabra Ruralan
agricultural information site located in Rio Cuarto. Although
in Spanish, there are numerous scenes of the drought in the area
during the interviews.
Río Cuarto is a city in
the province of Córdoba, Argentina. Located in the south of the
province, it has about 144,000 inhabitants (2001 census [INDEC]) and
is an important commercial and agricultural hub. It was founded on
November 11, 1786, as "Villa de la Concepción del Río Cuarto.
