Blog
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UPCOMING AG TOURS:
- Jan 16th-21 -
Mato Grosso - full
- other dates available
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Where Are the Soybeans?
29 Jul 10 |
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Cash soybean bids remain firm in the interior of
Brazil.
Soybean crushers do not have enough soybeans to
make it until November.
Soybean crushers are bidding a negative margin
to secure cash soybeans.
Subscribers have received a flash update
with full details.
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Record soybean planted area
in Brazil for 2011
20 Jul 10 |
 Ag
Rural has made their first 2011 soybean crop prediction for
2011.
They are calling for 24 million hectares(59 million acres)
to be planted to soybeans. This is + 700,000 ha from the
2010 season.
They are predicting another 350,000 ha of corn will be
switched to soybeans above and beyond last years switch of 1
million hectares. This is the trend because of the low price
of corn in relation to soybeans. This will happen primarily
in the southern states.
They are also predicting about 350,000 ha of expansion to
occur in the Northern/Western states.
If decent weather were to occur with planted area of this
size, a 70 million ton + soybean crop would be possible.
With La Nina kicking in, we need to be monitoring possible
dry pockets forming in some areas. I think it will be very
difficult to maintain the very high national yields that
were common in 2010.
They made no mention of the possible 300,000 hectare
increase in cotton area for 2011. Some, not all, of those
acres will come from soybean area.
Sugarcane area continues to expand and more often than not
tends to eat away at old soybean baseline acres too.
At this time we can see the making of another huge soybean
crop on the horizon. Will it be above 70 MMT? I do not think
so. Could the crop be at par with 2010 crop? Yes.
The August newsletter has been sent out. It has details
about planting mix for 2011.
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Corn Price mato Grosso, Brazil
19 Jul 10 |
Here is a chart of
cash corn prices in Mato Grosso.
Even with recent 80
cent/bu rally in Chicago, the price of corn in Mato
Grosso did not budge.
Depending on location, cash corn ranges from US$ 2.00
per bushel to US$ 2.85.
No shortage of corn in Brazil.
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Corn & Soybean Update
16 Jul 10 |
I chatted with
commodity broker from
Sorriso, MT
Cash corn is US$ 2.05 per bushel.
Europe wants to buy Brazil corn now. Cheaper than USA. The
problem is getting the cheap corn to port. The government
has a freight auction system that subsidizes that.
Spot soybeans are US$ 8.50 per bushel
January bids for early 2011 crop are US$ 7.25 per bushel
February delivery is at US$ 6.60 per bushel
Freight from elevator to port is about US$ 100 per metric
ton.
We need to add US$ 2.70 per bushel to get the port price.
*
all quotes are
central Mato Grosso (1200 mi / 1,920 km to port)
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"Congratulations on
your November letter. It was really good and informative. I think we
are probably looking at a continued sideways market in soybeans, at
least for now."
Jay
Edwards |
"Thanks for the great trip! Learned a ton – only wish it had been longer."
Larry DeMaria
Sterne Agee NYC |
"You did a good job on estimating crop sizes this year
both in Argentina and Brazil.
And
also about flat price expectations."
Regards,
Tom Rinaudo
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