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Brazilian Ag and Soybean Blog

 Kory's comments and observations

 

 

 

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NEWSLETTER:
 

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COMMENTS AND OBSERVATIONS


A series of articles giving my comments and observations about agriculture in Brazil going back to 2007

 

( CLICK TO LEARN MORE )

 

 

 Testimonials

 

You did a good job on estimating crop sizes this year both in Argentina and Brazil.  And also about flat price expectations.

 

Regards,  Tom Rinaudo

You are again being proven correct on you soybean numbers. Congratulations on having the nerve to go against CONAB, USDA and other prediction giants . . . 4 months ago!  That is a long time to wave a contrary banner!    Good job.

 

Jay Edwards

 

 

 

 Ag Blog News

 

1 July Wednesday

Cotton Harvest Western Bahia

 

marcador

2nd largest cotton producer

marcador

Producers not optimistic.

marcador

Inputs too high.  Too much rain.  But low cotton prices primary concern.

marcador

Looking ahead to next crop. Reduced investments & area planted -30%.

marcador

Production cost R$4,000 p/ha.  Selling price doesn't cover cost.

 

 

 

 

27 June Saturday

July In Mato Grosso

 

I will be on tour with Sterne Agee starting July 8th.  I will be showing them the growth of Ag industry in Mato Grosso. We will be researching Ag stocks and how to benefit from the rebound in the Ag sectors.

I am watching fertilizer sales and deliveries. I am a bit concerned as to the lag I am seeing compared to the previous two years. If overall fertilizer sales don't rebound quickly, I may have revise my Brazil crop production estimates lower for 2010.

The July newsletter features this topic.

 

State of Maranhão and soybean crop24 June Thursday

The State of Maranhão

In southern Maranhão, soybean producers are discouraged with the outcome of this year's harvest. The lack of credit and the rain reduced production. Maranhão farmers harvested 993,000 MT of soybeans. A drop of 21.3% compared to last year. The global financial crisis has restricted credit for farmers exactly at the time of planting and the area sown was 8% less at 420,000 hectares. The excess of rainfall exacerbated the situation further causing a decrease of 14% in productivity. 

--> About Maranhão

 

 

18 June Thursday

Newsletter
 

I will release the July newsletter the week of June 22.

It will feature comments on Brazil fertilizer sales to farmers and new Mato Grosso processing facilities opened by Bunge and Cargill.

The next 90 days of fertilizer sales will determine Brazils' potential to surge soybean production for 2010.

 

10 June Wednesday
 
ALL Railroad Get BNDES Loan

 

RIO DE JANEIRO (DowJones)--Brazil's Development Bank, BNDES, approved a 2.15 billion Brazilian real $1.11 billion) credit line for South America's largest independent logistics company, America Latina Logistica (ALLL11.BR), or ALL, the bank said in a statement Tuesday.

 

The funding will support ALL's railroad investment plan for the period 2009 to 2012.

 

Production of harvesters In Brazil dropped 80% in May

The production of harvesters registered a decline of 80.8% in Brazil in May, in comparison to the same period last year.  "Producers are reducing purchases in the midst of difficulties in financing", says the National Association of Manufacturers Motor Vehicles (Anfavea). According to the organization, only 60 harvesters were produced in Brazil in May, that number was 69.7% registered in April.

The combine is one of the most expensive items in the set of equipment traditionally used by the farmer, with one unit can exceeding 1 million Reais (US$512,820 @ US$1.95 to Real).

 

Anfavea reported that sales of agricultural machinery totaled 4,017 units in May, slightly higher by 2.2% over April, but a fall of 13.8% compared to May last year. 

  • January-May, the industry sold 18,815 units, a decrease of 7.3% over the same period of 2008.
     

  • Total production of machinery was 4,457 units in May, a reduction of 14.5% over April and 31.2% compared to May last year.
     

  • From January to May, 24,352 units were produced machines, a decrease of 25.2% compared to 2008. Exports reached 1,247 units, an increase of 61.5 percent over April, but fall to 53.8% compared to May compared to last year.
     

  • From January to May, 6,091 units were exported, a decrease of 50.6 percent before the same period of 2008.

Source: ANFAVEA - São Paulo June 05,2009

 

4 June Thursday

 

Fertilizer Trade Chart - June

 

Number of sacs of soybeans to trade for 1 ton of fertilizer - cash price now.

or
 

red squares
 

to deliver soybeans in march 2010 for a ton of fertilizer in October this year.


Advance price


Keep in mind that last year at this time grain companies were not taking future soybean trades..... credit crunch, volatility, margin calls etc, etc.

 

They did not want the exposure last year at this time.

 

 

Fertilizer Trade Exchange Mato Grosso Brazil

 

21 May Thursday

 

LRV Update
I spoke to friends in Lucas do Rio Verde today. The 2nd crop corn was planted later this year.  The region has had the most rainfall ever for the month of May. This is perfect for the 2nd crop.  They are about to start chopping corn for silage. He did make the comment that the rains need to stop now; otherwise the cotton crop will be at risk of Boll rot.
 

 

18 May - Monday

 

State of Maranhão

 

The images go to verify my earlier comments on Brazil's crop size.

 

State produces 1 MMT

 

I think we can assume a high % of that crop is at risk

 

Chuva = Rain

 

NYT link about the flooding in Maranhão

 

 

18 May - Monday

 

Argentina

 

Junin, Argentina two John Deere combines harvesting beans.

 

Junin is a couple of hours from Buenos Aires.

 

Beans look pretty 'light' to me.

 

In Spanish.

 

 

 

 

 

18 May 09 

Bahia - Beans and Cotton

A contact in LEM, Bahia has told me today that he estimates that 15% of soybean crop has been lost due to wetness and spoilage (moldy beans).

He also estimates that 30% of the cotton crop is gone.  Too much rain for the cotton BOLLS.  Either rotten or deteriorating quality in the early BOLLS.

Stay tuned for updates.

 

15 May 09

 

Too Much Rain in Western Bahia
 

35% of soybeans spoiled in field.
 

Rain  220 MM or 9 about inches for May - double normal.


In LEM up to 6000 trucks are waiting to dump wet soybeans. Crop in Bahia expected to be down 8% compared to last year. Some drivers have spent 1 week in line.

 

14 May 09 

Bahia


NE Brazil has been very wet the past few weeks.

Western Bahia planted late this year. I am hearing reports of moldy soybeans and BOLL rot in the cotton. Media coverage has been light. I hope to get a video of this on the blog sometime.

With the excess rains this can only hinder Brazil's overall production.

Crazy year - Drought to the south and floods in the north

 

6 May 09 

Special Mail Out

I will soon be sending out a special mid-May update for subscribers. 
 

It will feature the cost of production for 2010 for Brazilian soybean farmers.

Chemical companies have now joined the mix for supplying credit to farmers.


 

 

 

Readers' Comments:

First let me assure you that I think your newsletter and information is totally too cheap!  I garner more information that has more value from you, and for that I am very appreciative.

Scott R.  Illinois

 

Thank you for your newsletter on sugar and the current state of the farm crisis in Brazil.
Shaun B. Minnesota

 

Kory. I really enjoyed your news letter.  The economics of sugar production was interesting, as well as the breakdown of soybean yields per state.   Very educational to see the production differences throughout Brasil!!  Other people only give one production number for the entire country.  Looking forward to your next newsletter already!!!  Have you considered publishing more often?  I wish you would consider doing a weekly newsletter!!  I would be the first to sign up!!
Kelly D Iowa.

 


 

 

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