 3
year chart of Brazilian fertilizer imports
16 July 09
2009 should be an exact inverse to the normal seasonality.
The 2nd half should be strong. The 1st half was very weak.
There is a paradox developing; a Mexican standoff.
The interior soybean farmer has fertilizer on hand and is ready
for the 2010 crop cycle which will start circa September 15.
i.e. Mato Grosso and Goias states
The southern Brazil farmer is still licking his losses due to 2009
drought
conditions and is waiting for new credit.
The central Brazil sugarcane producer is buying fertilizer hand to
mouth.
Bad ethanol
economics and lack of credit are pushing back his fertilizer
purchases.
Imports of new fertilizer stocks has been very slow. I do expect a
strong 2nd half. However, I think there were more fertilizer
stocks carried forward from 2008 than previously reported.
International fertilizer prices seem to have broken to the downside.
Brazil will need to move fertilizer at record pace the next six
months to reach 22 million delivered to producers this year. If
Brazil does not use 22 million ton of fertilizer for the 2010 crop,
I think we will see impacts on yields. It might not be on
soybeans, but sugarcane, corn, or cotton will suffer a little bit. |
