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2 October -
Thursday
Dollar valuation should motivate BR exports
Due to the significant dollar appreciation against the Real,
Brazilian exporters are more willing to accomplish anticipated
contracts. On the other hand, they have resisted settling new export
contracts, once futures have decreased and the costs of production
keep high. To delivery in October, export contracts that were
settled between March/06 and September/08, according to Cepea,
averaged 0.6148 dollar - FOB values in Paranaguá and Santos ports.
In the domestic market, cotton prices kept firm even with ginning
process. The support came from growers’ retreat and the dollar
valuation against the Real. From August 29th to September 30th, the
CEPEA/ESALQ Index for the cotton type 41-4 (delivered in Sao Paulo
city, payment in 8 days – the most common commercialization in
Brazilian market) upped 3.1 percent in Real, closing at 1.2311 real
or 0.6466 dollar a pound on Sept 30th. Moreover, the higher demand
of the textile sector, which normally increases the manufactured
production in the last trimester of the year, reinforced the upward
trend.
Harvest activities are finishing. According to the Brazilian
Commodity Exchange (BBM), until Sept 19th, 1.154 million tons of the
cotton from 2007/08 crop were already traded, which represents 72
percent of the volume projected by the Conab. Of the total
registered by the BBM, 472 thousand tons were directed to the
domestic market and 682 thousand tons, to the international one.
In global terms, the 2008/09 crop production was forecasted at 24.4
million tons, a decrease of 6.8 percent compared to 2007/08 crop,
according to the USDA report published on Sept 12th. The consumption
was estimated at 26.9 million tons, slight decrease of 0.1 percent,
however superior to the production. Based on these data, the ending
stocks should reduce 14 percent.
source CEPEA/ESALQ
17 September -
Wednesday
Firm quotations in the
first fortnight
From August 29th to September 15th, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for the
cotton type 41-4 (delivered in Sao Paulo city, payment in 8 days –
the most common commercialization in Brazilian market) raised 1.86
percent in Real, closing at 1.2164 real or 0.6720 dollar a pound on
Monday.
Growers kept firm, focused on accomplishing export and domestic
contracts. Moreover, the demand enlarged, contributing to boost
domestic values even more. The Real depreciation against the dollar
(of 11.08 percent in the accumulated of the first fortnight of
September) reinforced the increases in prices.
According to Secex (Foreign Trade Secretariat), in August/08,
Brazilian cotton exports amounted to 48.7 thousand tons, volume 11.5
percent higher compared to August 2007. (Cepea – Brazil)
source CEPEA/ESALQ.
22 August - Friday
Brazil to seek to retaliate
against U.S. over cotton
 BRASILIA
(Reuters) - Brazil is resuming action at the World Trade
Organization (WTO) to take retaliatory trade measures against the
United States over subsidies it pays its cotton farmers, the foreign
minister said on Friday.
"We are sending a petition to Geneva (WTO headquarters) to request
the resumption of the arbitration process which had been interrupted
in relation to cotton," Celso Amorim told reporters.
The WTO cleared the way in June for Brazil to seek up to $4 billion
in trade sanctions on U.S. imports but the Brazilian government had
not pursued applying the sanctions in the hope of hammering out a
deal through the DOHA round of trade talks, which have since
collapsed.
Amorim said the country would also look more closely at possible
action over U.S. tariffs on imports of the Latin American nation's
sugar-cane derived ethanol biofuel.
"We also have to examine the ethanol question. A consensus is
mounting that we should go down this road (a trade dispute) but
we're still working with lawyers and checking the law," he said.
Brazil has already mounted a joint challenge together with Canada
over the United States' agriculture subsidies.
(Reporting by Fernando Exman; writing by Peter Murphy; editing by
Todd Eastham)
06 August -
Wednesday
Restricted supply does not hinder decreases
From June 30th to July 31st, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for the type 41-4
(delivered in Sao Paulo city, payment in 8 days – the most common
commercialization in Brazilian market) dropped 3.11 percent in Real,
closing the period at 1.2562 real or 0.8053 dollar a pound.
Some growers, wholesalers and traders have accepted to trade at
lower prices. Lots of growers, however, remain firm about the
values. The harvesting of the 2007/08 crop keeps moving on, but the
supply available is still low.
According to the Brazilian Commodity Exchange (BBM), until July
31st, 1.052 million tons of the cotton from 2007/08 crop was already
traded, which represents 68% of the total projected by the Conab
(1.556 million tons). Of the total registered by the BBM, 370
thousand tons were directed to the domestic market and 681 thousand
tons, to the international one. (Cepea – Brazil)
03 July - Thursday
Cotton - Restricted supply and
higher demand support prices
Brazilian
cotton market closed June with firm prices. Even with the harvest
beginning in some areas of the Center-Western region, the supply is
still low. Besides that, wholesalers and textile mills were more
willing to trade.
The CEPEA/ESALQ Index for the type 41-4 (delivered in Sao Paulo
city, payment in 8 days – the most common commercialization)
accumulates an increase of 1.39 percent in Real from May 30th to
June 30th, averaging 1.2966 real or 0.8104 dollar a pound. In
nominal terms, the June/08 average is 9.14 percent superior to the
Jun/07 one. In real terms, however, the Jun/08 average is 2.42
percent lower.
According to the Brazilian Commodity Exchange (BBM), until June
20th, 959 thousand tons of the cotton from 2007/08 crop was already
traded, which represents 62 percent of the total projected by the
Conab (1.55 million tons). Of the total registered by the BBM, 292
thousand tons were directed to the domestic market and 667 thousand
tons, to the international one.
(Cepea – Brazil)
Cotton
Index
decreases 8% in April
Since March this year, Brazilian cotton prices have been moving down. From Mar 31st
to April 30th, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for the type 41-4 (delivered in São Paulo city,
payment in 8 days – the most common commercialization) decreased
7.84%, closing at 1.3107 Reais or US$ 0.7896 per
pound on Wednesday.
Growers and wholesalers continue trading in order to settle
stocks from the 2006/07 crop. Besides that, limited demand and Real
appreciation against the dollar, which affects import and export
parities, also reinforced growers’ behavior of accepting lower
values.
According to the Brazilian Commodity Exchange (BBM), as of April
25th, 880,000 mmt of the cotton from 2007/08 crop had been
traded, which represents 57% of the total projected by the
National Company for Food Supply - Conab - (1.56 million tons). Of
the total registered by the BBM, 216 thousand tons are directed to
the domestic market and 664 thousand tons, to the international.
Conab forecasts national consumption will be at
1.05 million tons.
source CEPEA/ESALQ.
17 March - Monday
Firm
values due to growers’ retreat
Brazilian cotton growers kept firm about the values during the first
fortnight of March. On the demand side, wholesalers were more
willing to trade, contributing for supporting the quotations.
Between Feb 29th and March 14th, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for the type
41-4 (delivered in Sao Paulo city) increased 4.6 percent in Real,
closing at 1.4392 real or 0.8416 dollar a pound on Friday.
The increases of international prices (ICE Futures and the Cotlook A
Index) - especially during the first week of March - and, as a
result, the higher export parity were some reasons for growers’
retreat. In the second week of March, international quotations
decreased again, which contributed for the stability in the domestic
market last days.
source CEPEA/ESALQ
16 January -
Wednesday
BR
production depends on the global market
The Brazilian cotton production will depend on the international
market in the next years. For this crop (2007/08), the National
Company for Food Supply (Conab) forecasts the planted area at 1.1
million hectare, 3.4 percent higher over the previous period.
Regarding the production, the volume should be 4 percent superior,
reaching 1.6 million tons. Considering that the Brazilian demand
should keep stable, at roughly 1 million tons, there is no
alternative except to export. The volume exported should reach 520
thousand tons in the 07/08 crop against the 415 thousand tons in the
previous crop (Conab data).
According to the USDA, the global cotton production should reduce
2.7 percent in the 2007/08 crop compared to the previous one. The
consumption should keep increasing around 4 percent. In general
terms, inventories are forecast to decrease roughly 9 percent. In
this context, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC)
shows that average prices represented by the Cot A will increase 13
percent in the 2007/08 crop.
The year of 2008 starts with a great volume of anticipated trades.
According to the Brazilian Commodity Exchange (BBM in Portuguese),
817 thousand tons of the 2007/08 crop was already traded until the
end of December, which represents 52 percent of the production
forecast by the Conab (1.6 million tons). Out of this total, 78
percent is directed to export.
Growers are optimistic about prices in 2008. From March to May this
year, quotations at the ICE Futures are at 67 cents of dollar per
pound, from July until October, at 70 cents of dollar per pound and
in December 2008, at 74 cents of dollar per pound. In Dec/06, values
were at roughly 50 cents of dollar a pound.
During the first fortnight of January, Brazilian cotton market moved
at a better pace, with firm prices. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index for the
type 41-4 (delivered in São Paulo city) closed at 1.3826 real or
0.7900 dollar a pound this Tuesday, upping 7 percent in Real over
Dec 28th.
source CEPEA/ESALQ
17 October - Wednesday
Brazil May Avoid Punishing U.S.
Over Cotton Aid
By Jonathan Stearns
Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) --
Brazil may spare the U.S. any retaliation over cotton subsidies
because of the political and economic costs, settling for a
``moral'' victory in a World Trade Organization dispute, said
Brazilian Agriculture Minister Reinhold Stephanes.
The WTO ruled that the U.S. failed to
cut cotton aid enough to comply with global trade rules, the
Brazilian government said yesterday. The ruling, which upholds a
preliminary report in July, lets Brazil impose tariffs on goods
imported from the U.S., the country's main trading partner, and
apply other sanctions such as curbs on property rights.
(click for full article)
2 October - Tuesday
Small Price Drop due to higher supply
Even with the better
demand, Brazilian cotton prices dropped a little at the end of
September. The reason is that growers, in need of cash, offered a
larger volume. Between Sept 24th and 28th, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index
(type 41-4, delivered in Sao Paulo city) decreased 0.8 percent in
Real, closing at 1.1898 real or 0.6262 dollar per pound on Friday,
Sept 28th. In the accumulated of September, prices downed only 0.36
percent. The monthly average was of 1.1965 real or 0.6297 dollar per
pound, 2.63 percent higher that the August one.
The valuation of the Real against the dollar keeps limiting the
recuperation of the export parity. Last week (from Sept 24th to
28th), export parity calculated by Cepea averaged 1.0793 dollar a
pound, stable from the week before (base Cot A – delivered on
Paranagua Port). Compared to the weekly Index average (1.1931 real
or 0.6449 dollar per pound), domestic trades are 10.54 percent more
advantageous than the international ones.
Regarding the 2006/07 crop, the Conab forecasts a production of
1,524.2 thousand tons. According to the Brazilian Commodity
Exchange, until the end of September, 73 percent of this total was
already traded.
source CEPEA/ESALQ
11 September - Tuesday
Average Cotton Per Hectare 240
Arrobas In The State of Mato Grosso
This equals 3,600 kilos or 7,920 lbs
per Ha or 3,206 lbs per Acre. Preginned, works out to 6.68
bales per Acre.
Ginned = 2.57 bales per Acre
16 July - Monday
Cotton update from Bahia -
click here
21 June - Thursday
Strong Real inhibits Cotton planting
Despite what looks like
the largest cotton harvest (1,5 million mt) in its history, the
strong Real is causing losses. The investment in the farming in 2006
did not compensate producers. The 2007/08 area planted is expect to
drop by 10% to 20%.
source: AgroLink
1 June - Friday
Price drops to the level of
May/06 in Brazil
Brazilian cotton
prices decreased in May, returning to the levels of May 06, in real
terms (discounted for inflation). From the beginning of the month to
May 31st, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index (type 41-4, delivered in São Paulo
city) devaluated 16.37% in Reais, closing at R$1.1690 or
US$0.6088 a pound this Thursday, May 31st.
The reasons for the downward trend are the supply from the 2006/07
crop, which should be a record, the stable demand in the domestic
market and the valuation of the Real against the US$, which
stimulates imports. In general terms, textile mills traded few
volumes, betting on new decreases.
Exports moved at a slow pace during the last month. Few contracts
were settled at 0.59 dollar a pound for the cotton from the 2007/08
crop and at US$0.60 a pound for the product from the 2008/09 crop.
source CEPEA/ESALQ
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